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Populism: The Phenomenon
Ray Dalio calls it one of the most powerful forces shaping economic conditions. It's so potent that he and a team at Bridgewater Associates, the $150 billion hedge fund he founded, published a 61-page paper on it.
The research is titled, "Populism: The Phenomenon."
Dalio defines populism as "a rebellion of the common man against the elites, and to some extent, against the system." Over the last year, it has become a tremendously influential force, he said.
He tallied the share of votes received by populist candidates in developed countries around the world to create an index. The chart, on the first page below, shows a spike in populism recently � the highest since the 1930's.
The research is titled, "Populism: The Phenomenon."
Dalio defines populism as "a rebellion of the common man against the elites, and to some extent, against the system." Over the last year, it has become a tremendously influential force, he said.
He tallied the share of votes received by populist candidates in developed countries around the world to create an index. The chart, on the first page below, shows a spike in populism recently � the highest since the 1930's.
61 pages, Unknown Binding
Published March 22, 2017
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About the author
Ray Dalio
35books4,951followersRaymond Dalio (born August 8, 1949) is an American investor, hedge fund manager, and philanthropist. Dalio is the founder of investment firm Bridgewater Associates, one of the world's largest hedge funds.
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Displaying 1 - 5 of 5 reviews
January 30, 2018
Again, Ray made it crisp on the template of populism, the similarity of now vs. 1930s:
- Power to the common man
- attacking the establishment, the elites, the powerful
- protectionism
- the emergence of the strong leader to serve the common man
- nationalism
- militarism
- greater conflict
- greater attempts to influence or control the media
However, he also made the disclaimer that it is not clear how much of the bad economic conditions of that period were the result of the debt crises and how much they were due to populist policies such as protectionism.
There are number of similarities between economic conditions now and those in the mid-1930s (e.g. relatively high levels of debt, high levels of central bank debt monetizations, interest rates near zero, large wealth gaps, etc.) though there are also important differences (e.g., this time debt monetizations came quicker, leading t less bad economic conditions, and there is a long history of democratic institutions). For these reasons, we think that the populist cases of the 1930 are analogous to those of today, it is likely those of today will be less extreme.
- Power to the common man
- attacking the establishment, the elites, the powerful
- protectionism
- the emergence of the strong leader to serve the common man
- nationalism
- militarism
- greater conflict
- greater attempts to influence or control the media
However, he also made the disclaimer that it is not clear how much of the bad economic conditions of that period were the result of the debt crises and how much they were due to populist policies such as protectionism.
There are number of similarities between economic conditions now and those in the mid-1930s (e.g. relatively high levels of debt, high levels of central bank debt monetizations, interest rates near zero, large wealth gaps, etc.) though there are also important differences (e.g., this time debt monetizations came quicker, leading t less bad economic conditions, and there is a long history of democratic institutions). For these reasons, we think that the populist cases of the 1930 are analogous to those of today, it is likely those of today will be less extreme.
January 20, 2019
This is a research report that examines the relationship between populism and the economy in the context of the modern history. Examining these histories, the authors identified the characteristics typical of populism.
Essentially, when wealth and opportunity gaps between the haves and have-nots widen, the common men start to distrust the government and current system, as well as, foreigners who threaten their way of life. The populist politician is thus able to ride on this wave by aligning themselves with the people, and by attacking the current establishment. Once in power, they are likely to implement economic policies like protectionism, nationalism, increased infrastructure building, increased military spending, greater budget deficits, as well as, capital controls. At the same time, they will attempt to influence or control the media. Conflicts between factions start to intensify, potentially leading to more autocratic leadership as people hope to see a 'strong man' who can make order out of this mess.
The authors note that while the current situation bears similarity with what has happened in the past, especially during the 1930s, they do not suggest that future events will be a replay of what happened in 1930s. But it's important to learn the typical events flow and monitor how conflicts play out between opposing forces to anticipate in advance how things will turn out.
An important read for uncertain times like now.
Essentially, when wealth and opportunity gaps between the haves and have-nots widen, the common men start to distrust the government and current system, as well as, foreigners who threaten their way of life. The populist politician is thus able to ride on this wave by aligning themselves with the people, and by attacking the current establishment. Once in power, they are likely to implement economic policies like protectionism, nationalism, increased infrastructure building, increased military spending, greater budget deficits, as well as, capital controls. At the same time, they will attempt to influence or control the media. Conflicts between factions start to intensify, potentially leading to more autocratic leadership as people hope to see a 'strong man' who can make order out of this mess.
The authors note that while the current situation bears similarity with what has happened in the past, especially during the 1930s, they do not suggest that future events will be a replay of what happened in 1930s. But it's important to learn the typical events flow and monitor how conflicts play out between opposing forces to anticipate in advance how things will turn out.
An important read for uncertain times like now.
January 3, 2022
Balanced rapport covering the broad political spectrum - gives a brief overview of the key policies often enacted by leaders trying to overthrow "the elite" in one way or another - 14 examples, unclear exactly why these are picked.
Missed some kind of a conclusion, which might also not be the general purpose of this book/ paper.
Striking resemblance between on the surface systems that might even go to war against eachother - far-right vs far-left governments. Both usually start by riling up momentum through an ongoing crisis, quickly nationalising assets and spending heavily on infrastructure and expensive national programs while toleraring deficits - sometimes simply ignoring them. Often manipulates tarrifs or currencies to encourage internal market spending, leading to a bubble of growth that cannot sustain itself - capital flight met with even sterner policies to keep capital within the state, decreasing foreign investment and exports and currency devaluation, leading to artificial salary freezes or further seizing of private markets, inflation and from there things just kind of crash into chaos if no one else mqnaged to seize power.
Obviously common on both sides with disruption of media outlets and attacks or even eliminating political adversaries - justified in order to gain momentum, speed and control needed for big policy changes. Often tolerared - even celebrated - as a breath of fresh air, in comparison to some sort of preceding political chaos marked by grid-locked decision making.
There are a few outliers. Andrew Jackson refused and tried to dismantle the state as much as possible, which meant other kinds of problems - Setting up local hubs of power unable to solve any key issues. And various one-issue types that werent very long-lived.
Missed some kind of a conclusion, which might also not be the general purpose of this book/ paper.
Striking resemblance between on the surface systems that might even go to war against eachother - far-right vs far-left governments. Both usually start by riling up momentum through an ongoing crisis, quickly nationalising assets and spending heavily on infrastructure and expensive national programs while toleraring deficits - sometimes simply ignoring them. Often manipulates tarrifs or currencies to encourage internal market spending, leading to a bubble of growth that cannot sustain itself - capital flight met with even sterner policies to keep capital within the state, decreasing foreign investment and exports and currency devaluation, leading to artificial salary freezes or further seizing of private markets, inflation and from there things just kind of crash into chaos if no one else mqnaged to seize power.
Obviously common on both sides with disruption of media outlets and attacks or even eliminating political adversaries - justified in order to gain momentum, speed and control needed for big policy changes. Often tolerared - even celebrated - as a breath of fresh air, in comparison to some sort of preceding political chaos marked by grid-locked decision making.
There are a few outliers. Andrew Jackson refused and tried to dismantle the state as much as possible, which meant other kinds of problems - Setting up local hubs of power unable to solve any key issues. And various one-issue types that werent very long-lived.
July 18, 2020
memorable bits:
- 4 Japanese PM's were assassinated in the span of a couple of years
- lenin led a revolution/ wanted to legitimize the revolution so he ends up going ahead with the preplanned election/ ends up losing/ annuls the results of the election
----
populism is...
� Power to the common man...
� ...Through the tactic of attacking the establishment, the elites, and the powerful...
� ...Brought about by wealth and opportunity gaps, xenophobia, and people being fed up with government
not working effectively, which leads to:
� ...The emergence of the strong leader to serve the common man and make the system run more
efficiently...
� ...Protectionism...
� ...Nationalism...
� ...Militarism...
� ...Greater conflict, and...
� ...Greater attempts to influence or control the media.
> populists took advantage of the confluence of several characteristics of the times:
1. Weak economic conditions, which made people disillusioned with the current ruling parties.
2. An uneven recovery in which the elite was seen as prospering while the common man was struggling.
3. Political squabbling/ineffectual policy making, preventing the bold action people saw as necessary. 4. A feeling among a country’s majority that foreigners, or those who didn’t share the same
background/ethnicity/religion, were threatening their values and way of life.
> Conflicts between factions became increasingly intense, leading to great obstructionism, crackdowns on opposition and free media, etc. This led to more autocratic leadership. Those that had the weakest norms/shortest history of democratic institutions were quickest to move away from democracy to dictatorship.
- 4 Japanese PM's were assassinated in the span of a couple of years
- lenin led a revolution/ wanted to legitimize the revolution so he ends up going ahead with the preplanned election/ ends up losing/ annuls the results of the election
----
populism is...
� Power to the common man...
� ...Through the tactic of attacking the establishment, the elites, and the powerful...
� ...Brought about by wealth and opportunity gaps, xenophobia, and people being fed up with government
not working effectively, which leads to:
� ...The emergence of the strong leader to serve the common man and make the system run more
efficiently...
� ...Protectionism...
� ...Nationalism...
� ...Militarism...
� ...Greater conflict, and...
� ...Greater attempts to influence or control the media.
> populists took advantage of the confluence of several characteristics of the times:
1. Weak economic conditions, which made people disillusioned with the current ruling parties.
2. An uneven recovery in which the elite was seen as prospering while the common man was struggling.
3. Political squabbling/ineffectual policy making, preventing the bold action people saw as necessary. 4. A feeling among a country’s majority that foreigners, or those who didn’t share the same
background/ethnicity/religion, were threatening their values and way of life.
> Conflicts between factions became increasingly intense, leading to great obstructionism, crackdowns on opposition and free media, etc. This led to more autocratic leadership. Those that had the weakest norms/shortest history of democratic institutions were quickest to move away from democracy to dictatorship.
October 22, 2018
Обзор исторических примеров популизма от Рея Далио, поиск схожих паттернов, без особых откровений.
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