

“We don't want to eliminate the ego completely. Otherwise we'd be wandering around the house each morning, drinking coffee for hours, saying, 'Who the hell am I?' We need the ego to sustain a sense of identity.”
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“Stop reading so much and go think.”
― Grit: The Power of Passion and Perseverance
― Grit: The Power of Passion and Perseverance
“Suppose someone says, “Unfortunately, the popularity of soccer, the world’s favorite pastime, is starting to decline.â€� You suspect he is wrong. How do you question the claim? Don’t even think of taking a personal shot like “You’re silly.â€� That only adds heat, not light. “I don’t think soâ€� only expresses disagreement without delving into why you disagree. “What do you mean?â€� lowers the emotional temperature with a question but it’s much too vague. Zero in. You might say, “What do you mean by ‘pastimeâ€�?â€� or “What evidence is there that soccer’s popularity is declining? Over what time frame?â€� The answers to these precise questions won’t settle the matter, but they will reveal the thinking behind the conclusion so it can be probed and tested. Since Socrates, good teachers have practiced precision questioning, but still it’s often not used when it’s needed most. Imagine how events might have gone if the Kennedy team had engaged in precision questioning when planning the Bay of Pigs invasion: “So what happens if they’re attacked and the plan falls apart?â€� “They retreat into the Escambray Mountains, where they can meet up with other anti-Castro forces and plan guerrilla operations.â€� “How far is it from the proposed landing site in the Bay of Pigs to the Escambray Mountains?â€� “Eighty miles.â€� “And what’s the terrain?â€� “Mostly swamp and jungle.â€� “So the guerrillas have been attacked. The plan has fallen apart. They don’t have helicopters or tanks. But they have to cross eighty miles of swamp and jungle before they can begin to look for shelter in the mountains? Is that correct?â€� I suspect that this conversation would not have concluded “sounds good!â€� Questioning like that didn’t happen, so Kennedy’s first major decision as president was a fiasco. The lesson was learned, resulting in the robust but respectful debates of the Cuban missile crisis—which exemplified the spirit we encouraged among our forecasters.”
― Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
― Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

“The key to such power is ambiguity. In a society where the roles everyone plays are obvious, the refusal to conform to any standard will excite interest. Be both masculine and feminine, impudent and charming, subtle and outrageous. Let other people worry about being socially acceptable; those types are a dime a dozen, and you are after a power greater than they can imagine.”
― The Art of Seduction
― The Art of Seduction
“Most important, understand that goals are for losers and systems are for winners.”
― How to Fail at Almost Everything and Still Win Big: Kind of the Story of My Life
― How to Fail at Almost Everything and Still Win Big: Kind of the Story of My Life
Michael’s 2024 Year in Books
Take a look at Michael’s Year in Books, including some fun facts about their reading.
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